Truflation US CPI Index

From Truflation:

US CPI inflation today: 1.87%

US PCE inflation today: 2.04%

We obtain US inflation data by aggregating over 35 million data points from over 70 data providers and merchants at the point of sale. Our inflation metrics have been below and around 2% since the end of December. Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its headline US inflation rate for December 2025 (CPI = Consumer Price Index), which is calculated by aggregating around 60-80k data points from household surveys.

Inflation significantly impacts the Federal Reserve's decisions and mortgage rates. When inflation is high, the Fed increases interest rates to cool off spending and keep prices stable, as higher rates can reduce borrowing costs and slow down economic growth.

When inflation is low, the Fed might lower rates to encourage spending and investment, which stimulates the economy. Mortgage rates closely follow these Fed rates, so if the Fed raises rates due to rising inflation, mortgage rates typically increase as well, making home loans more expensive for consumers. This relationship matters because changes in inflation and interest rates can affect people's purchasing power, housing affordability, and overall economic activity.

When the Fed lowers its rates, borrowing becomes cheaper for banks, and they often pass those savings on to consumers by lowering mortgage rates. Essentially, the Fed’s decisions set the tone for how much it costs to borrow money for homes, impacting what consumers pay for their mortgages. It also impact sentiment, which we’ve learned about in this community, and on the webinar.

All eyes on inflation tomorrow.